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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-98-T.McKinley, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20. Penalty on ATL-98-T.McKinley, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.30 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP