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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 31 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 41, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 17-M.Hall.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.29 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 47, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP