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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model