Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(12:57) 6-M.Wile punts 54 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis to GB 29 for 13 yards (91-S.Weatherly).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model