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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

GB
56.4%
MIN
43.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB on 3 more days rest than MIN

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
MIN 21
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

GB

Mike Daniels DE Out Foot
Nick Perry LB Out Knee
Raven Greene S Doubtful Ankle
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Groin
Kentrell Brice S Questionable Ankle
Tra Carson RB Questionable Rib
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Knee
Kevin King CB Questionable Hamstring
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Concussion

MIN

Chad Beebe WR Out Hamstring
Ben Gedeon LB Out Concussion
David Morgan TE Out Knee
Andrew Sendejo S Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:01 TD GB (6:01) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – MIN 0
  • Q1 03:00 TD MIN (3:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 33-D.Cook for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-29-K.Brice was injured during the play. GB 7 – MIN 6
  • Q2 14:21 TD GB (14:21) 33-A.Jones left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – MIN 7
  • Q2 11:07 TD MIN (11:07) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – MIN 13
  • Q3 03:31 FG MIN (3:31) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. GB 14 – MIN 17
  • Q3 00:36 TD MIN (:36) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – MIN 23
  • Q4 02:25 FG GB (2:25) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 17 – MIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:57) 6-M.Wile punts 54 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis to GB 29 for 13 yards (91-S.Weatherly).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:22) 6-J.Scott punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:38) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to GB 32, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:06) 6-J.Scott punts 54 yards to MIN 17, Center-43-H.Bradley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 17 for no gain (11-T.Davis).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 78%

    (4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 54%

    (3:04) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-93-R.Gilbert.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 39%

    (11:39) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-82-J.Moore, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 20.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:07) 6-M.Wile punts 59 yards to GB 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-T.Williams to GB 35 for 23 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:28) 33-A.Jones up the middle to GB 44 for no gain (22-H.Smith).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (3:31) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:57) 6-J.Scott punts 56 yards to MIN 7, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 64%

    (6:00) 6-M.Wile punts 21 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-T.Williams MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-35-M.Sherels at GB 15.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Diggs (93-R.Gilbert).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (2:25) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.