4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-82-J.Moore, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model