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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 33-A.Jones up the middle to GB 44 for no gain (22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model