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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 6-M.Wile punts 21 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-T.Williams MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-35-M.Sherels at GB 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP