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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 68

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model