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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -13.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NE
64.8%
NYJ
35.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 25
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

Dwayne Allen TE Out Knee
Tom Brady QB Questionable Knee
Nate Ebner S Questionable Knee
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ankle
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Calf
Sony Michel RB Questionable Knee

NYJ

Sam Darnold QB Out Foot
James Carpenter G Doubtful Shoulder
Marcus Maye S Doubtful Thumb
Robby Anderson WR Questionable Ankle
Brandon Copeland LB Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27
–
NYJ 13

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:08 TD NYJ (4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 10-J.Kearse for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 01:18 TD NE (1:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-H.Anderson]. NE 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 02:30 FG NE (2:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 00:08 FG NYJ (:08) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NE 10 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 08:37 FG NE (8:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 04:04 FG NYJ (4:04) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NE 13 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 01:59 TD NE (1:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – NYJ 13
  • Q4 08:58 TD NE (8:58) 26-S.Michel right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – NYJ 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to NE 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%

    (8:14) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 45%

    (14:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-51-B.Copeland.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:04) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for no gain (17-C.Peake).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%

    (2:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65%

    (:58) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to NYJ 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (9:28) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 9 for 2 yards (48-J.Jenkins).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (8:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (4:04) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:38) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 17 yards (46-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on NE-22-O.Melifonwu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 24.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:23) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to NYJ 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at NYJ 39 for 1 yard.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete short right to 10-J.Kearse (30-J.McCourty) [91-D.Wise].