Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 78

New York Jets 7 – New England Patriots 7

(7:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for no gain (17-C.Peake).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.55 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model