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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 55

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to NE 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model