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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 40

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model