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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to LV 09, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-36-C.Clark.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model