Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to LV: Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.207 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.046 EPA/dropback
- LV defense: +0.159 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- BAL defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
OAK
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:46 TD LV (8:46) 77-K.Miller reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle to BAL 01 for no gain (57-C.Mosley; 32-E.Weddle). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at BAL -1. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 77-K.Miller and 77-K.Miller reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – BAL 0
- Q1 04:32 FG BAL (4:32) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on LV-23-N.Nelson, Defensive Offside, declined. OAK 7 – BAL 3
- Q2 13:01 TD BAL (13:01) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – BAL 9
- Q2 07:14 FG BAL (7:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. OAK 7 – BAL 13
- Q2 02:38 FG LV (2:38) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 10 – BAL 13
- Q3 08:16 TD BAL (8:16) 8-L.Jackson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – BAL 19
- Q3 05:15 TD LV (5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-24-B.Carr, Defensive Holding, declined. OAK 16 – BAL 20
- Q4 11:20 TD BAL (11:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – BAL 26
- Q4 06:11 TD BAL (6:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 33 for -5 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-55-T.Suggs at LV 43. 55-T.Suggs for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Suggs' 3rd career touchdown. OAK 17 – BAL 33
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 59%
(10:22) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 86-L.Smith to BAL 7 for 30 yards (24-B.Carr).
-
Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%
(4:32) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on LV-23-N.Nelson, Defensive Offside, declined.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:13) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones to LV 39 for 24 yards (50-N.Morrow). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 37.
-
Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%
(:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to LV 09, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-36-C.Clark.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(13:01) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:24) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 43 yards to BAL 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(7:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(5:55) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to BAL 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 30 for 9 yards (17-D.Harris).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%
(2:38) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:39) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-23-N.Nelson.
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LV 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to LV 20 for -3 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).
-
Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 62Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 35%
(6:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 33 for -5 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-55-T.Suggs at LV 43. 55-T.Suggs for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Suggs' 3rd career touchdown.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 14 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:59) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to BAL 29, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones to BAL 43 for 14 yards (41-K.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-26-M.Canady, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29.