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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 52 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model