Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(10:24) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 43 yards to BAL 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.24 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model