4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 37

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 86-L.Smith to BAL 7 for 30 yards (24-B.Carr).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.29 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model