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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(10:39) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-23-N.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model