Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(8:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LV 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to LV 20 for -3 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.51 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model