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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Baltimore Ravens 34

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to BAL 29, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones to BAL 43 for 14 yards (41-K.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-26-M.Canady, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model