Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones to LV 39 for 24 yards (50-N.Morrow). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model