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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model