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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

PIT
60.1%
DEN
39.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Case Keenum (DEN) -0.042 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.226 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 26
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Knee
Stephon Tuitt DE Out Elbow
Matt Feiler G Questionable Pectoral

DEN

Brandon Marshall LB Out Knee
Dymonte Thomas S Out Ankle
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:31 FG DEN (6:31) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. PIT 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 06:34 FG PIT (6:34) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 03:33 TD DEN (3:33) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 83-M.LaCosse for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:03 TD PIT (:03) 78-A.Villanueva reported in as eligible. (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass short right to 78-A.Villanueva for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – DEN 10
  • Q3 10:47 TD PIT (10:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-S.Harris]. PIT 16 – DEN 10
  • Q3 05:37 TD DEN (5:37) (No Huddle) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – DEN 16
  • Q4 09:22 TD DEN (9:22) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (9:44) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (31-J.Simmons), Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 15 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 87%

    (6:31) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:57) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to PIT 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 87%

    (6:34) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 78-A.Villanueva reported in as eligible. (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass short right to 78-A.Villanueva for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:10) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to DEN 21, Center-57-K.Canaday. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 27 for 6 yards (34-T.Edmunds; 57-K.Canaday).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 20%

    (10:57) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to PIT 3, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-81-T.Patrick.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:43) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 23, ball out of bounds at PIT 23.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:28) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to DEN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:30) 3-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to PIT 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 37, and recovers at PIT 37. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 37 for no gain (27-B.Langley).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 30%

    (7:18) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to DEN 16, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:36) 3-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to PIT 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 44 for 6 yards (27-B.Langley).