Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 10

(13:10) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to DEN 21, Center-57-K.Canaday. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 27 for 6 yards (34-T.Edmunds; 57-K.Canaday).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model