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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 53

Denver Broncos 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to PIT 3, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-81-T.Patrick.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP