Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 73

Denver Broncos 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

(9:43) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 23, ball out of bounds at PIT 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model