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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to DEN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.29 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model