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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 85

Denver Broncos 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 3-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to PIT 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 44 for 6 yards (27-B.Langley).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model