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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 57

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:45) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-58-C.McKinzy.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model