4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Thursday 2018-11-22 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

WAS
46.8%
DAL
53.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to WAS: Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.066 vs Colt McCoy (WAS) +0.249 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Colt McCoy in place of Alex Smith)
  • WAS offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

WAS 22
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

WAS

Chris Thompson RB Out Rib
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Ankle
Tony Bergstrom G Questionable Knee
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Shin
Samaje Perine RB Questionable Calf
Trent Williams T Questionable Thumb

DAL

Tavon Austin WR Out Groin
David Irving DE Out Ankle
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Adam Redmond G Out Concussion
Geoff Swaim TE Out Wrist
Joe Thomas LB Questionable Foot
Antwaun Woods DT Questionable Concussion
Taco Charlton DE Questionable Shoulder
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Knee
Zack Martin G Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Neck
Connor Williams G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 23
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:09 TD DAL (10:09) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 07:12 TD WAS (7:12) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 85-V.Davis for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 01:32 FG DAL (1:32) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. WAS 7 – DAL 10
  • Q3 09:09 TD WAS (9:09) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short left to 14-T.Quinn for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-R.Gregory]. WAS 13 – DAL 10
  • Q3 06:57 TD DAL (6:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – DAL 16
  • Q3 02:27 TD DAL (2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – DAL 23
  • Q4 14:20 TD DAL (14:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-4-D.Prescott, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 13 – DAL 30
  • Q4 11:46 TD WAS (11:46) (Shotgun) 46-K.Bibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – DAL 31
  • Q4 01:17 FG WAS (1:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 23 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:39) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DAL 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-16-J.Chesson.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to WAS 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to WAS 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:45) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-58-C.McKinzy.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to WAS 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 47 for 10 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (1:32) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:09) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 26%

    (:26) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 3, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-53-J.March-Lillard.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:12) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to DAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:44) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to WAS 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-T.Quinn to DAL 25 for 30 yards (6-C.Jones). Return left sideline

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (3:13) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to DAL 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 73%

    (5:33) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to WAS 33 for no gain (93-J.Allen; 54-M.Foster).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to WAS 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (1:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.