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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to WAS 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 47 for 10 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP