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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 91

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to WAS 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-T.Quinn to DAL 25 for 30 yards (6-C.Jones). Return left sideline

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model