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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 33
Dallas Cowboys 31 – Washington Commanders 20
What Actually Happened
(5:33) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to WAS 33 for no gain (93-J.Allen; 54-M.Foster).
The Three Options
GO
+1.93 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.46 EP
KICK
+0.86 EP
- 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
- 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
