Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 86

Dallas Cowboys 31 – Washington Commanders 20

(3:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to WAS 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.66 EP
63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model