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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to WAS 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP