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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model