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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 13.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

ARI
16.3%
GB
83.7%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Josh Rosen (ARI): -0.298 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

ARI 16
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ARI

Deone Bucannon LB Out Chest
Budda Baker S Questionable Knee
Rudy Ford S Questionable Heel
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Knee
Haason Reddick LB Questionable Neck
Chad Williams WR Questionable Ankle

GB

Kentrell Brice S Out Ankle
Tra Carson RB Out Rib
Mike Daniels DE Out Foot
Trevor Davis WR Out Hamstring
Raven Greene S Out Ankle
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Groin
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Kevin King CB Questionable Hamstring
Lane Taylor G Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 20
–
GB 17

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:35 TD GB (11:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 04:46 TD ARI (4:46) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – GB 7
  • Q2 00:18 FG GB (:18) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. ARI 7 – GB 10
  • Q3 05:22 FG ARI (5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 10 – GB 10
  • Q3 02:01 TD ARI (2:01) 29-C.Edmonds left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – GB 10
  • Q4 05:31 TD GB (5:31) (No Huddle) 33-A.Jones left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – GB 16
  • Q4 01:45 FG ARI (1:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 20 – GB 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 18%

    (9:12) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 13%

    (6:03) 2-A.Lee punts 37 yards to GB 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-C.Edmonds. PENALTY on GB-85-R.Tonyan, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at GB 16.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:13) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to ARI 46, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 46 for no gain (27-J.Jones).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 28%

    (1:28) 2-A.Lee punts 26 yards to GB 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (14:55) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to ARI 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-82-J.Moore.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:55) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to GB 41, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-J.Alexander pushed ob at ARI 35 for 24 yards (26-Bra.Williams).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (:18) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:47) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to GB 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-J.Alexander to GB 35 for 1 yard (26-Bra.Williams).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 13%

    (11:21) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:34) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to GB 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 23-J.Alexander.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:51) 51-K.Fackrell and 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to ARI 5, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 13 for 8 yards (42-O.Burks).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

    (5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:41) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to ARI 35, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-93-R.Gilbert.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:28) 2-A.Lee punts 64 yards to GB 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-26-Bra.Williams.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%

    (1:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-J.Graham to GB 37 for 7 yards (43-H.Reddick).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 66%

    (:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.