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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model