4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to GB 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-J.Alexander to GB 35 for 1 yard (26-Bra.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model