Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 51-K.Fackrell and 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 57 yards to ARI 5, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 13 for 8 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model