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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model