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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model