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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 2-A.Lee punts 64 yards to GB 5, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-26-Bra.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model