4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model