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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 2-A.Lee punts 26 yards to GB 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.67 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model