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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to ARI 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-82-J.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.44 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP