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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 50
Atlanta Falcons 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7
What Actually Happened
(14:12) 25-I.Smith left guard to ATL 49 for -1 yards (55-T.Suggs).
The Three Options
GO
+1.22 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.79 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.60 EP
KICK
-1.41 EP
- 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.41 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
