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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BAL
36.7%
ATL
63.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.202 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.203 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.101 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
ATL 26
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BAL

Tony Jefferson S Out Ankle
Joe Flacco QB Doubtful Hip
James Hurst G Doubtful Back
Alex Collins RB Questionable Foot
Gus Edwards RB Questionable Ankle
Tim Williams LB Questionable Illness
Anthony Levine S Questionable Ankle
Tavon Young CB Questionable Groin

ATL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 26
–
ATL 16

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 FG ATL (9:36) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. BAL 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 04:24 TD BAL (4:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 11:52 TD ATL (11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at ATL 27 for -5 yards (97-G.Jarrett). FUMBLES (97-G.Jarrett) [97-G.Jarrett], RECOVERED by ATL-44-V.Beasley at ATL 26. 44-V.Beasley for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BAL 7 – ATL 9
  • Q2 00:10 FG BAL (:10) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 10 – ATL 10
  • Q3 10:02 FG BAL (10:02) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – ATL 10
  • Q3 00:36 FG BAL (:36) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 16 – ATL 10
  • Q4 07:29 FG BAL (7:29) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 19 – ATL 10
  • Q4 07:24 TD BAL (7:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 17 for -8 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor) [48-P.Onwuasor], RECOVERED by BAL-25-T.Young at ATL 12. 25-T.Young for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 25 – ATL 10
  • Q4 04:22 TD ATL (4:22) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [99-M.Judon]. BAL 26 – ATL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (9:36) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 29 for 4 yards (83-R.Gage; 55-B.Carter).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:58) 4-S.Koch punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 28%

    (14:12) 25-I.Smith left guard to ATL 49 for -1 yards (55-T.Suggs).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%

    (13:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass deep middle to 10-C.Moore to ATL 25 for 21 yards (21-D.Trufant).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 33%

    (7:59) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 26%

    (4:08) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:17) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to ATL 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at BAL 49 for 18 yards (49-C.Board).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to BAL 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (10:02) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (:36) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to BAL 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 78%

    (7:29) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:59) 8-L.Jackson left guard to BAL 48 for 2 yards (27-D.Kazee; 97-G.Jarrett).