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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.94 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model